Author Topic: suprise suprise  (Read 1080 times)

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kevplumb

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suprise suprise
« on: November 16, 2020, 12: PM »
www.gazettelive.co. uk/news/teesside-news/hartlepools-covid-19-infection-rate-19284910
because the idiots don't play by the rules
was bound to happen  ::)
A councillor is an elected representative of their ward, not their political party!
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Lucy Lass-Tick

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Re: suprise suprise
« Reply #1 on: November 16, 2020, 01: PM »
That's if you believe the statistics, which are (to say the least) following some rather strange & unlikely patterns.

mk1

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Re: suprise suprise
« Reply #2 on: November 16, 2020, 06: PM »
That's if you believe the statistics, which are (to say the least) following some rather strange & unlikely patterns.


Yes Facebook is full of people who are 'experts' on statistics......... ......cue remark  about flu comparison?

Perhaps Hartlepool TV should make a video about their views on  the best way to fight the spread on Covid?


« Last Edit: November 16, 2020, 06: PM by mk1 »

Lucy Lass-Tick

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Re: suprise suprise
« Reply #3 on: November 16, 2020, 07: PM »
I do my own research - facts & figures from root/official sources. Nothing to do with Facebook (or anybody else, for that matter).

diSme

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Re: suprise suprise
« Reply #4 on: November 16, 2020, 08: PM »
The economy is being crumbled, unnecessarily (IMHO). People are losing their livelihoods. Mental health issues are climbing. People are not happy.

Where's the balance..........
I believe everything and nothing

mk1

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Re: suprise suprise
« Reply #5 on: November 16, 2020, 09: PM »
The economy is being crumbled, unnecessarily (IMHO). People are losing their livelihoods. Mental health issues are climbing. People are not happy.

Where's the balance..........
A Government exists  first and foremost to protect its people. The wallets of the people comes long  after that. Business profits are not even on the list  If we were bombing Iraq or Afghanistan billions would be spent without batting an eyelid. Far better to spend the money saving lives.
Under Trump the USA is pursuing a 'Herd Immunity' strategy with no attempt to protect the vulnerable. Check their latest figures and tell me it works.

mk1

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Re: suprise suprise
« Reply #6 on: November 16, 2020, 09: PM »
I do my own research - facts & figures from root/official sources. Nothing to do with Facebook (or anybody else, for that matter).
No you do not. You grab other people's research off the internet. You then chose which set of figures to promote and discard those that you do not like.
I sit back and let the experts fight it out and then go with the consensus.  Do the experts sometimes get it wrong? Yes but  compared to Google experts they are  vastly more often right than wrong.
Think seat belts. When they were first introduced loads of people were against them claiming you could be trapped in a burning car by your seat-belt so they were unsafe. The point was that whilst a couple of 'extra' people could die in such situation this number was vastly outweighed by the 100's who would not die by being ejected from the car. Its a numbers game.
Get ready for the next internet conspiracy boom when the vaccine arrives and all the crackpot loony people constantly bringing up the flu death totals refuse to be vaccinated.

Lucy Lass-Tick

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Re: suprise suprise
« Reply #7 on: November 16, 2020, 09: PM »
Without this turning into a pantomime ... rubbish! I'm analysing PHE's figures (amongst others) ... not those mentioned by Mavis/Walter next door (or the window cleaner's granny's version) ...

mk1

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Re: suprise suprise
« Reply #8 on: November 16, 2020, 10: PM »
Without this turning into a pantomime ... rubbish! I'm analysing PHE's figures (amongst others) ... not those mentioned by Mavis/Walter next door (or the window cleaner's granny's version) ...

You can preach 'the truth' as long as you want but if you do it in a field of a 1000 of people also preaching their (crazy) version of 'the truth' why would anyone take any notice?

Not many people understand what an organised disinformation campaign sets out to do. It is not an attempt to form a coherent contrary view or establish an alternative version of the truth rather it sets out to promote hundreds of alternate (and even contradictory) views so that no one knows what the truth is anymore. To sow distrust and destroy faith in experts. Perhaps you should see yourself as a victim of this campaign?


Lucy Lass-Tick

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Re: suprise suprise
« Reply #9 on: November 16, 2020, 10: PM »
I preach no truths ...  do you?

diSme

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Re: suprise suprise
« Reply #10 on: November 16, 2020, 11: PM »
I preach no truths ...  do you?
It appears that he preaches whatever the government tells him to preach.

It's quite funny really. All of a sudden, the government seems to have the best interests of the people at heart. Quite ironic really.
I believe everything and nothing

mk1

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Re: suprise suprise
« Reply #11 on: November 16, 2020, 11: PM »



It's quite funny really. All of a sudden, the government seems to have the best interests of the people at heart. Quite ironic really.
I thought that was your problem. You believe too much effort is being wasted protecting the  lives of ( as Dumbo put it when he wanted rid of the Mill House Bowlers)'a bunch of old coffin-dodgers' instead of  looking after the interests of traders.

mk1

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Re: suprise suprise
« Reply #12 on: November 16, 2020, 11: PM »
I preach no truths ...  do you?
This is the most important  truth:

Rumors are, and have always been, common during crisis events. Crises are often accompanied by uncertainty about the event and anxiety about its impacts and how people should respond. People naturally want to resolve that uncertainty and anxiety, and often attempt to do so through collective sensemaking. Itís a process of coming together to gather information and theorize about the unfolding event. Rumors are a natural byproduct.

Rumors arenít necessarily bad. But the same conditions that produce rumors also make people vulnerable to disinformation, which is more insidious. Unlike rumors and misinformation, which may or may not be intentional, disinformation is false or misleading information spread for a particular objective, often a political or financial aim.

kevplumb

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Re: suprise suprise
« Reply #13 on: November 17, 2020, 05: AM »
Do you know what they say about rumours on-site?

never believe a rumour you didn't start yourself   ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D
A councillor is an elected representative of their ward, not their political party!
 Councils need communities but communities don't need councils
Party politics have no place in local goverment

Lucy Lass-Tick

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Re: Lies ... damned lies ...?
« Reply #14 on: November 17, 2020, 06: PM »
Interesting artile in today's Telegraph.  "One in eight coronavirus cases were recorded in the wrong local authority in the six weeks before the three-tier restrictions system was imposed, it has emerged, leading to fears that some areas were left dangerously exposed.
A test and trace blunder recorded students as living at their parents' address rather than their term-time lodgings, meaning many university cities were unaware how bad the problem was in their area.
The error has seen hundreds more cases added to Nottingham, Newcastle and Manchester and shows they all had higher rates than Liverpool did when it was placed into Tier 3 restrictions on October 14.
Both Nottingham and Newcastle saw increases of more than 200 per 100,000 population in the week before the tier restrictions were imposed, but both remained in Tier 2.
In the week between October 5 and 11, Newcastle recorded 1,416 cases Ė but the true figure was 2,104. Nottingham believed there had been 3,091 cases in the city, but the real number was 4,049. It meant Newcastle's case rate jumped from 467 per 100,000 to 694 per 100,000, while Nottingham rose from 929 per 100,000 to 1,216.
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Other university towns such as Bristol, York and Leeds have also seen big increases in their case numbers, while graphs compiled by The Telegraph show that cases were rising more steeply in some areas than previously thought.
The problem, which was corrected on Monday night by Public Health England (PHE), also meant many small towns experienced falsely high case numbers.
Professor Carl Heneghan, director of the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said: "This is unacceptable. We're making huge decisions on the basis that we have accurate information, yet there continue to be problems with the data.
"These inaccuracies are often being used to drive policies which are affecting people's livelihoods and well-being. It can have a damaging effect both ways, with some places ending up in tougher restrictions than they need, while other areas left with a false sense of reassurance."
In recent weeks, there have been growing concerns that students were being wrongly added to the case rates of their home towns rather than their university location.
Hertfordshire County Council warned it was a "nationwide issue" after discovering that nearly half of those testing positive in St Albans no longer lived in the city. The London borough of Richmond, and Telford and Wrekin, in Shropshire, complained that around 16 per cent of cases were caused by students who were living elsewhere.
The problem arose because test results were automatically linked to GP records, and even if students had given a term-time address the records were defaulting to the NHS data, which was mostly parental addresses.
PHE said that, until the end of August, around four per cent of people testing positive for coronavirus had given an address that was in a different local authority, often because they had recently moved house or relocated for work.
However, between September 1 and October 12, this rose to 12 per cent of cases, driven mostly by younger people aged 17 to 21, which PHE said was "consistent with the relocation of many students across the UK" (the video below shows students gathering in Nottingham ahead of the introduction of stricter Covid restrictions).
The data change has led to big drops in some areas, with Richmondshire, in North Yorkshire, seeing 12 per cent of its total cases in the pandemic wiped out. Chiltern has seen an overall decrease of nine percent, while Mendips, West Devon and Rutland are down eight per cent. Some 30 local authorities have seen their totals reduce by more than five per cent.
In 120 local authorities, the address reallocation results in a fall in rates greater than 10 per 100,000, although no area decreased by more than 35 cases per 100,000 population. The recalculated incidence rates were higher than 10 per 100,000 in 23 local authorities.
PHE and the Joint Biosecurity Centre (JBC) said they analysed the new case data to see if it would have had an impact on decisions about local and national restrictions.
"The conclusion is that recording location based on the NHS database has not affected any such decisions which take into account a wider range of evidence, including the test positivity rate, an assessment of the local response and plans, and the trend of other metrics, such as healthcare activity and mortality are all considered," PHE concluded.
Dr Yvonne Doyle, the medical director at PHE, said: "We have updated the way we record the location of people who test positive for coronavirus to prioritise addresses given at point of testing, rather than details registered on the NHS database.
"This better reflects the distribution of positive cases in recent weeks and months, particularly among younger people of university age who may not have yet registered with a GP at their term-time address. This has not affected any decision about local and national restrictions, which take into account a wider range of evidence."