Labour Win

[mk1]

No comment on Hart?  It would seem all the claims that Labour are 'finished in Hartlepool' were premature. Nice antidote anyway to those who think Boris is the second coming and even better to see the disgusting 'For Britain' rabble crushed.

https://www.hartlepool.gov.uk/news/article/1656/by-election_result

[Topcat]

No comment on Hart?  It would seem all the claims that Labour are 'finished in Hartlepool' were premature. Nice antidote anyway to those who think Boris is the second coming and even better to see the disgusting 'For Britain' rabble crushed.

https://www.hartlepool.gov.uk/news/article/1656/by-election_result

At 16.93% turnout it hardly generated a lot of interest from anyone did it?

[mk1]

At 16.93% turnout it hardly generated a lot of interest from anyone did it?

A win is a win is a win. If the IU had won it would be hailed as a great victory.

[Call Me Al]

Hate to say this, but as a result of an inadequate response that my friend got from Thomas Cassidy as to why he and James Brewer voted for CAB to have a committee chair, a group of us family and friends (probably a dozen or so people), decided that we could no longer support the IU.
These dozen votes went elsewhere (not Labour), or became a non vote. So Mr Griffiths lost a possible 12 votes that he would have been guaranteed until very recently. I suspect others that have voted Independent in the past may have took the same stance as our small pocket of family and friends.

[Lucy Lass-Tick]

Looked like a pretty grubby campaign, mind. Whereas I'm no fan of 'For Britain' (to put it mildly) I'm not sure that calling them 'fascists' on an election leaflet was appropriate. And I've seen the leaflet. In addition, was it true that another leaflet contained false information and had its circulation brought to a halt?

[DRiddle]

This by election result is a microcosm of how things will be in 2020 i'd say. The vote was all over the place in Hart (of the tiny percentage that bothered). 70% of the 1200 who did bother to vote still opposed the latest incarnation of Labour, but Labour win the seat with the other 30%, 366 votes.

Before the 2020 local all outs we'll likely see a general election (probably around December) after the EU don't budge and inch for Boris and parliament blocks any no deal attempt.

If that does happen you'll see the Tories and the Brexit party play out a deal that's likely to have already been agreed in which the Brexit Party target traditional labour 'leave voting' seats like Hartlepool, while leaving the Tories to hoover up their main strong holds.

The lib dems will split the 'remain vote' with Labour  in marginals, probably leading to wins for the Tories.

Mike Hill will be backed into the corner i've been saying for ages he'll be backed into, where he'll be trying to juggle a remain/second referendum position from his party in a very pro-brexit town.

Post general election you could well be a Tory outright majority or a Tory/brexit party coalition.

This will have a massive effect on the local all outs in 2020 as voters don't know where to turn. Labour will be seen to have betrayed the referendum result in Hartlepool, but people (outside West Park) won't automatically jump to the tories.

If Shane hadn't muddied the waters by metaphorically getting into bed with the Akers-Belchers, i'd say the council could  have been under full independent control in 2020.

Now, who do people vote for in Hartlepool in 2020?

UKIP? - Not in enough numbers they won't.
For Britain? - Absolutely not (see above), there are most likely only 2 pockets of Hartlepool where they could gain enough votes to win seats..
Green? - far too niche a party for Hartlepool.
Lib Dem? - haven't done well in Hartlepool locally for years, an overly remain party won't do well in an overly brexit town.
Conservatives? - Still can't see them winning a seat outside Rural West anytime soon.
Independents of whatever variety? - Some will vote for them, but the trust has been significantly harmed by the SCAB involvement and Tory coalition in my view.
Labour? - 30-35%+ always will in practically every ward, but that's not taking into account the local anger if Labour nationally campaign for remain.

The local vote will be spread every which way in Hartlepool in 2020, just like in Hart yesterday.

I'd say based on the current situation, the vote will be so messed up in 2020, Labours large-ish core vote will lead to them being back in overall control.

The elephant in the room nobody is talking about yet is the 'game changer' of the brexit party targeting local councils.

If that happens, and the local Brexit party does emerge and absorbs the HIU, various other hangers on and those just desperate to be councilors regardless of which party they claim to be aligned to, then all bets are off.

It's not beyond the realms of possibility Hartlepool will have a brexit party MP by Christmas and a brexit party council by next May.

and for those of you thinking "Ah but no one will care about the brexit party when we leave on October 31st" i say this "they will, because we won't".

Crazy CRAZY times ahead.

[mk1]

. Whereas I'm no fan of 'For Britain' (to put it mildly) I'm not sure that calling them 'fascists' on an election leaflet was appropriate.

Why not? They are Fascists.  The town should hang its head in shame that one of them managed to  get elected here. Go to their Facebook page and see they are totally and utterly fixated on anti-Muslim propaganda. Tommy Knobinson the jailbird is one of them. They absorbed Liberty GB and they openly state they are the modern BNP.

[mk1]

If that happens, and the local Brexit party does emerge and absorbs the HIU.................It's not beyond the realms of possibility Hartlepool will have a brexit party MP.....................

.

What do you mean 'if'?
Its 100% certain that the IU is Farage stalking Horse. It is absolutely certain they will fight any GE as Farage Stooges and it was the plan before the last election. Tennant is a senior member of Farage's bandwagon and the prospective Farage Candidate for Hartlepool has already been chosen. They will not reveal who it is because that would give the game away and finally destroy the fiction of an 'Independent' Council.
Polls have shown that the obsessive Brexiteers are quite prepared to see the UK break up to get their fantasy. When people are that myopic then we are indeed in for a rough ride.
Of course all this speculation can be ended quite easily by Shane publicly stating he will never join, stand for, campaign for or have anything to do with the Farage Bandwagon.

[mk1]

Hate to say this, but as a result of an inadequate response that my friend got from Thomas Cassidy as to why he and James Brewer voted for CAB to have a committee chair,

Its raw politics. Give Cab a chair (by not opposing him and letting him get it by default) and you make sure that gangs votes are in the bag. Its how the game is played. You cover your ar*se by mumbling about 'inclusiveness' and meaningless platitudes like 'everyone working together'.

[SRMoore]

You cover your ar*se by mumbling about 'inclusiveness' and meaningless platitudes like 'everyone working together'.

Except for when that is said with absolute sincerity. We went into the May elections urging the public to elect a council of no overall control so that all groups and party's were forced to sit around the table together and work like adults in the best interests of the town. The public delivered that result and I then attempted to deliver on that promise.

Everyone would have been represented at the top table with fair representation had Labour acted in the best interests of the town rather than their party and took up positions they were best suited to fill.

You may not agree with me attempting to build a council or that was representative and may call me naive for believing it was possible. Maybe I was. But what I won't be accused of is being driven by spite, venom and personality politics like Labour had been for years and like some would have liked me to have been.

There is absolutely no point in fighting for change if once you get it you do exactly the same as the people before you.

[Tee_Ess_25er]

You may not agree with me attempting to build a council or that was representative and may call me naive for believing it was possible.

You must think quite a few of us are very naive if you think we will ever believe any BS reason like this for your union being instrumental in voting CAB a position.

Also totally obvious you have read this thread and chosen to reply to one persons comment but not another persons comment which you are named in, very telling that.

Crack on CABite

[SRMoore]

Naive? No. But the facts are there to be seen. Had labour took up chair and vice chair positions all groups on the council would have been represented as policy chairs. That's what I said I'd do.

Unfortunately nobody can choose who is put forward for positions by group as I'm sure you know. In two/three weeks of discussions nobody challenged CAB for regen. Not labour and not Black. Only on the night for maximum showmanship. Maybe if we'd have had a choice between CAB and another capable chair that can attend we'd have probably gone that way but Labour weren't going to do that as their party rule book forbids it.

If you think we voted for him because we needed the numbers you are wrong. We didn't need them and didn't want them. But as David clearly pointed out before the meeting on this forum, they were never going to vote for Paddy and we couldn't stop them voting.

What has been done since that day and what Labour don't tell you, is that the chair of regen no longer has direct control over any pot of money. He cannot spend anything without it coming through finance and policy where it is scrutinised by a cross party committee which he has no control over.

As for your final point. I didn't reply to that comment from MK1 as I have already done in public previously.

[mk1]

I didn't reply to that comment from MK1 as I have already done in public previously.

I have never asked those questions before so you can not possibly have answered them.

What you refer to was this:

Have you heard who is the Farage Personality Cult prospective GE Candidate for Hartlepool? Given your links you must know something?

To which you replied:

As for the Brexit Party, I'm afraid I don't know the answer to your question. I'm not a member of any political party so I'm not privy to who any of them are choosing to fight a GE. To be honest I've got enough to deal with without worrying about something I have little interest in.

Given this evidence:




I flat out do not believe you have 'no interest' in the matter. It  could be mistaken for a Hartlepool UKIP reunion and we would do well to remember this when any local organisation/business proclaims itself to be 'politically independent'. Judge me not by what I say but by my past actions and affiliations.

Anyway I specifically asked this:

Of course all this speculation can be ended quite easily by Shane publicly stating he will never join, stand for, campaign for or have anything to do with the Farage Bandwagon.

and not one of those questions was answered.

I note the new Farage Bandwagon has managed to retain its core vote,  the angry old white men

[SRMoore]

You're right, you haven't asked me those questions before but I have been asked on social media which is where I remember answering them.

I attended the Farage visit to the marina as I was supporting a friend, John Tennant, who we all know was standing in the European Elections as a Brexit Party candidate.

I myself have no link to the Brexit Party other than that I am a supporter of the UK leaving the EU and not ashamed to say so. I am not a member, supporter or activist. I am an independent councillor and that is how it was remain going forward.

Oh and no, I have absolutely no interests in getting involved with national politics. I've a wife, young family and a dog right here in Hartlepool. I'm small town boy who couldn't think of anything worse than living and working in London. No thank you.

[DRiddle]

It's very easy to say "I have no interest in this, I don't want to do that" etc.

For example, there was a fella who on November 26th 2018 said (and I'm quoting)

"For absolute clarity, I would state that i would not and do not want to be leader of the council".

Just saying.