What does your crystal ball say about the Brexit outcome?

Started by Lucy Lass-Tick, January 15, 2019, 12: PM

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Lucy Lass-Tick

Hartlepool post members are usually fairly politically savvy - what's their take on this?

mk1

I like watching the Corbynist's  squirm when the Dear Leader makes it quite clear he is not going to hold another vote and that he is a die-hard 'Leaver'. They have spent the last couple of years worshipping his every utterance convinced he was going to lead them to Nirvana and  it turns out he was just another little-englander gammon in mufti!  The sentiments of the overwhelming majority of the new intake are in direct conflict with the Dear Leader's  core values. Should be interesting to watch how this turns out when the Labour Party starts to fragment over the issue.

Latest polls here

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

On the Brexit deal itself BMG found that 29% of people think MPs should approve the deal (up 3 points from December), 37% think it should be rejected (down 6 points). Survation found 36% of people wanted MPs to approve the deal (up 5), 40% wanted it rejected (down 6). Both polls show some movement in favour of passing the deal, but still more opposition than support.

BMG asked whether people would support or oppose various alternative Brexit options. By 46% to 28% people would support a second referendum. By 45% to 39% people would support reversing Brexit and just remaining. Further negotiations were supported by 45% to 34%. A "Norway-style deal" was supported by 40% to 36%. Leaving without a deal was opposed by 45% to 35%.

Survation's poll included questions on how people would vote in various referendum scenarios – in a deal vs no deal referendum, 41% would prefer the deal, 32% no deal. In a referendum between no deal Brexit and remain, people prefer remain by 46% to 41%. A deal vs referendum vote would be neck-and-neck: 40% deal, 40% remain.


We do indeed live in interesting times....................

fred c

I'm beginning to come round to the belief that Brexit was always going to end up as a none Brexit, there are to many politicians and businesses that have to much to lose by leaving the EU, at the end of the day they have no real regard for the electorates opinions one way or the other.


mk1

Quote from: fred c on January 15, 2019, 05: PM
I'm beginning to come round to the belief that Brexit was always going to end up as a none Brexit, there are to many politicians and businesses that have to much to lose by leaving the EU, at the end of the day they have no real regard for the electorates opinions one way or the other.
Compromise is the way  forward. The winner-take-all attitude is causing the problems. Those who scream 'we won so all you losers can go fcuk yourself' are the problem. If left to its own devices Parliament will find a way. Those who for years were banging on about the supremacy of Parliament are now trying their hardest to prevent Parliament being 'supreme'.

Lucy Lass-Tick

This is getting extremely interesting - now seems that the whips are trying to get MPs to abstain rather than vote against May's withdrawal deal.

One slightly bizarre option would be for the PM to call a GE (after all, polls have the Tories six points ahead atm), asking for 3 month extension to article 50 (which would expire before the EU elections, but give her a bit longer to pull a rabbit out of the hat). With parliament dissolved in the run up to an election the current volte face would lose its power (temporarily, at least).
One plus for TM in this one is that she didn't 'intend' to lead the party into the next GE but if it happened too quickly to allow a leadership challenge then she could justify staying on.