Election handed to Wright?

[Jim Gillespie]

LOL.

Sorry, perhaps I should have elaborated more.

Back then it was a 3 horse race, which would have been perfect again this year.  Sadly, we are not comparing "apples with apples".  Not only have the Greens fielded a candidiate, we now also have a couple of more "also rans".  Although they have no hope of winning, they will, as I'm sure we are all agreed, pinch some votes off Labour and Tory; so this thing is not black and white this time around.

That's the trouble with both Labour and the Tories nationally.  They want to brain wash us all that voting is a binary choice; it isn't, either locally or nationally

[Lord Elpus]

"If only 2,755 people switch from Wright to Royal Hartlepool will have a new MP."

Maybe I'm a little slow this morning, but I'm struggling to understand his maths..............

Ok, if 2,755 people switch from Wright to Royal then Wright's vote would drop from 16,267 to 13,512. At the same time, the Tory vote would rise by the same amount from 10,758 to  13,513 - one more vote than Wright..

Have you got that now, Jim? You did say that you sold mortgages, didn't you? 

VOTE FOR PHF - THE PARTY THAT CAN DO SUMS! 

Royal's calculations look good on paper but has he allowed for the 'Ray Martin Wells' factor either way he's fooked.

[steveL]

You can't blame him for giving it a go. It's similar to the 'Vote UKIP Get Miliband' sound bite of his boss or indeed, Miliband's 'Vote SNP Get Cameron'. There's a distinct lack of imagination when it comes to slogans this election.

He has a point. With so many candidates, it's now hard to see anyone but the Tories being within firing distance of Wright.

[fred c]

I hate say it..... But any candidate other than the flaccid Member for Hartlepool MP.

We would then have 5 years to change the make up of our council, to that of a democratic entity that puts the town & it's  residents first, instead of the self serving carpetbaggers we have at the present

[Jim Gillespie]

I hate say it..... But any candidate other than the flaccid Member for Hartlepool MP.

We would then have 5 years to change the make up of our council, to that of a democratic entity that puts the town & it's  residents first, instead of the self serving carpetbaggers we have at the present

Trouble is Fred, there are now far too many to chose from, which will undoubtedly dilute the vote, which can only be good for Wright

[DRiddle]

The 'unknown factor' in all of this, is just how many traditional Labour voters Wright and/or the Akers-Belchers have alienated.

The hospital rally gave us a snap shot. It suggested 'lots'. If social media is to be believed, you'll struggle to find a Labour voter left in the town.

However, we know the reality is different. When push comes to shove there are several thousand postal votes which will give Wright a head start as they always do. The real fun starts once they're dealt with and it's purely the ballot box on the 7th that decides things.

The real interest for me isn't in the GE winner though, it's the locals which could prove fascinating.

We know from last year that whichever way Akers-Belcher might try to dress it up, he came (by the same logic as the Tory leaflet) within 319 votes of losing control of the entire council in May 2014.

That was quite an 'achievement' in a mid term election, in a Labour town under a Tory government.

Have the last 12 months improved Labours position in Hartlepool? I wouldn't have thought so. It's been a disaster whichever way even the staunchest Labour supporter looks at it.

We know that typically a GE increases the turnout by about 40% in relation to any other local election year.

The question is..... are those extra 40% going to prop up Labour? or have the A-Bs and Wright between then pushed those voters in a different direction?

Interesting times.

[Foggy]

I agree that the local election is definitely the interesting one and the most difficult to predict.  It is impossible to know how far the word from social media is spreading or how many people still believe the rubbish in the Fail and Labour propaganda such as the 'Your Hartlepool' leaflet.

As I have said in another thread, I have serious concerns about vote splitting in a few of the wards and I would have liked to have seen some people put their political aspirations on hold for a year for the good of the town as a whole.

[testing times]

Just as a slight diversion.

I can see that from one point of view, it would be in the best interests of UKIP if Miliband got into No 10; if Cameron manages it, then the lifespan of UKIP will be limited to an extra two years until the referendum in 2017. I fully expect Cameron to 'win' the planned 'referendum' in the same way that Wilson did. The Press and Big Business will make sure of that by swaying the vote in the same way that they did in the Scottish referendum.

What's that you say? The people aren't influenced by such things ..........?

[grim reaper]

Just received Wrights crap sheet for the Hart ward. 
How on earth are people still obsequious to him? 

He states the Tories have unfairly cut funding to the council, police, fire and NHS. HBC was a burgeoning monolith, totally devoid of control and commonsense.
It is still in that state, less a number of supernumerary roles gone, i.e. non-job directors and non-jobs throughout the system.
Have WE noticed any difference to our services since the reduction of OUR money to the 'big spenders' in HBC?   
NO.
He states he will restore our NHS!    WHAT?
I can't believe he would have the brass neck to even bring up the subject!
He states Labour will bring more GPs.
LABOUR are the idiots that renegotiated the doctors working hours, took them off 'after-hours' and weekend work, and gave them a massive wage rise! 

He said he will support local industry and bring apprenticeships for Hartlepool people. Why hasn't he done that over the last 11 years?
What industry has all those years of Labour brought to Hartlepool and the North-East?  NONE.
Nissan, Caterpillar, Hitachi, Marina, all introduced by the Tories.

He even has a young (impressionable) lad on his leaflet stating the Tories have failed in many ways, inc. lack of apprenticeships.
Have a look at the above companies lad, ask them how many apprenticeships they have started.
The Tories aren't perfect, NONE of the parties are. Pragmatism is the name of the game in politics, more so when you are in coalition with a bunch of power hungry chancers.
The Lib Dims have stymied a lot of what Cameron wanted to introduce.
But hey ho, no doubt the young lad has been listening to his dad and simply following the family tradition. 
Wake up, smell the coffee!