The election winners.

[Inspector Knacker]

All elections contrary to popular belief are not won by the diehard, dyed in the wool followers of any Party be they Tory, Labour, hand wringing Lib Dems or any other cult following.
These loyalists are the foundations of their Party, the inflexible hard core who's votes are in the bag, therefore in the election scenario, their votes are fixed assets, spoken for.
These voters therefore do not win anything, they just support the Party structure.
The election is decided by the floating voter, the flexible deciders who look at the field and decide what the best outcome will be for more than narrow political reasons. You have to distance yourself from the actual Party and see what the best outcome will be regardless of Party, but they must be able in a practical sense be able to deliver on what they promise, independents promising jobs, hospital services re-opening and the like are pie in the sky.
The other part of the equation is the candidate, do you believe what they have to offer can be achieved, or just something they can later say they hoped to achieve but realistically never could.

[Lucy Lass-Tick]

Problem with a few of the 'runners and riders' in this by election is that they'd struggle to deliver a takeaway. 

[Inspector Knacker]

I doubt half of them eat a one unless liquidised.
I keep shaking my head at just how some of these people think they can change anything. In the unlikely event of them winning, then what....? Do they believe they'll be walking around giving out orders and at the snap of a finger underlings will immediately start carrying out their commands, really?
Even with the big Party's you'd be the new kid on the back benches, whereas some independent nobody will be sat on a milking stool in the lobby, ignored and impotent.