BREXIT

[Stevef]

I just spent the whole of last night up watching the results of the Britexit referendum. Everyone assumed it was going to be a close call, but I held out for a remain vote. Half way through the night, it became increasingly clear that although still close it was the leave vote that was winning out.

As the vote became more and more real, it became obvious that the UK was going to be facing some serious and potentially dangerous problems. Not the pseudo and apocalyptic problems peddled by the Leave and Remain campaigns, but from a direction I hadn't given much thought to.
 
That is problems caused by a newly independent but far from United, Kingdom.

Long before the single market, the UK and Ireland have had free movement of people, goods and services across their borders and with the setting up of the single market this arrangement has continued up to today.

However with the UK having now taken the decision to leave the EU with the intension of securing its boarders and preventing free movement, it becomes impossible to see how that arrangement can continue.  After all what would be the point of restricting movement of people from the EU if all they have to do is travel (legally) to Ireland and simply walk (legally) into the UK?

If the wishes expressed by the people of the UK in the referendum are to be fulfilled. The sea and land borders between Ireland and the UK will need to be closed and controlled. Anybody wonder what effect that will have on a community as polarised as Northern Ireland? It is not difficult to understand why all the main political parties in NI campaigned (successfully in their area) to remain in the EU

Tensions have already been raised by Nationalists calls for a NI referendum on leaving the UK and unification with Ireland. If not handled carefully this could lead to the collapse of the peace agreement and even reignite the conflict which caused so much suffering in the past. Nigel Farage's boast that UKIP have freed the UK from Europe without firing a single shot, may not hold out for long.

Even before the referendum was announced Scotland made it clear that a vote to leave the EU would most likely trigger a demand for another referendum on Scottish Independence. The last referendum (45% leave 55%remain) left Scotland with one foot firmly out the door. With Scotland voting in the Britexit referendum by 2: 1 to stay in the EU and this being cancelled out by the rest of the UK, it becomes clear there has been major constitutional changes affecting the governance of Scotland implemented against the wishes of the Scottish people.

This is the very same situation which led to the Britexit referendum and makes it impossible to see why they should be denied a second referendum on Scottish independence. A referendum which would almost certainly see Scotland leave the UK and join the EU. This would create another land and sea boarder between the UK and the EU, which would need to be closed and controlled.

The UK voting system is based on first past the post, split along party lines. A system which often results in the county being governed by a party which has won only a minority of the votes cast. This results in large numbers of the electorate being asked to take part in an election where they have no means of affecting the outcome. As a result their views are of little consequence to the political parties and they can effectively become excluded from the political process.

The Britexit referendum which was decided on a straight count of votes (52%leave 48%remain) exposed these and other divisions in the country with areas of poor economic performance and limited previous political participation voting to leave the EU.

After the result was known David Cameron announced that he was to stand down to allow a new conservative MP to take on the role of Prime Minister. It was almost immediately speculated by the media that the next leader of the conservatives may choose to call a general election to cement their position as Prime Minister.

Now given that all the main political parties and most MP,s are in favour of Britain remaining in the EU, the limited number of votes required from the electorate to get a majority government and the problems raised by the vote to leave.  An election so soon after the referendum could be fought along the lines of accepting and respecting the advisory nature of the referendum while allowing parliament to exorcize its judgment in deciding what it actually means. This would allow parliament to move the decision from an instruction to leave the EU from a majority vote back to a decision made by what many consider to be a political elite.

What a fudge of that nature would do to the political, social and economic cohesion of the UK is anybody's guess.

To pinch from a well-known quote.
The battle to leave the EU is over. The battle for the heart, mind and soul of the British people is about to begin.

It's not possible to know exactly what happens next, but it's not going to be boring!

[mk1]

Scotland is going. That is a certainty. The break-up of the UK has begun.

[mk1]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-36624697

[akarjl]

Scotland is going. That is a certainty. The break-up of the UK has begun.

Spending half my life working with Scots I have to say if they want it give them it.

They have their own parliament. same for Welsh and Northern Ireland.Stop all funding and aid.

Then....turn England into a tax haven , set corporation tax at 10% and income tax same...then see what happens and how many companies want to set up here.

[marky]

Great idea. Could you provide list of the things that would collapse with so little tax revenue to fund them. You can start with the NHS.

[marky]

You're full of great ideas. Do you think London should stop subsidising the North East as well?

[for fawkes sake]

A new word appears to have appears within the last 24 hours as people start to come to terms with what they have done. It will be a word already familiar to Boris Johnson who I watched giving a news conference yesterday. Whatever words of bright new beginnings were coming out of his mouth, his body language was saying something quite different; something along the lines of "oh, s**t!"

The back-tracking that I have watched since yesterday morning has been simply breath-taking but nothing tops last night's Newsnight interview with one, long-term exiteer who went out of his way to say that the Leavers had never mentioned just how much immigration would fall post-exit, that he expected immigration would continue at more or less its current level but that we would 'have more control over it'.

Boris, for his part, supports an amnesty for any illegal immigrants who have been here more than 12 years, wants to delay the trigger for exit as long a possible and is still talking about a re-negotiation. This echoes his original published idea to gain an initial 'leave' vote in the hope this would produce a better deal for the UK.

Meanwhile, Osbourne has gone AWOL and is now fully expected to resign as Chancellor when Cameron finally leaves the stage; we can expect his Northern Powerhouse to leave with him as the nation treds water for a minimum two years in a turbulent sea while an on-line petition for a second referendum has already passed the 1 million mark. Was it started by Boris?

[mk1]

The back-tracking that I have watched since yesterday morning has been simply breath-taking but nothing tops last night's Newsnight interview with one, long-term exiteer who went out of his way to say that the Leavers had never mentioned just how much immigration would fall post-exit, that he expected immigration would continue at more or less its current level but that we would 'have more control over it'.

I saw that.  He was saying we would be like Norway-bound by all rules and regualtions but  not able to have any say in those same rules-and because we had 60 million people instead of Norway's 5 we would be 'different' to Norway!
The indications form the EU is that they want us out and gone as soon as possible.

[mk1]

turn England into a tax haven , set corporation tax at 10% and income tax same...then see what happens and how many companies want to set up here.

Look to the USA where Republican Governors are doing that in their home states.

See how the People of Flint were forced to drink poison water because the taxes for Big Business were slashed.

In late April 2014, in an effort to save about $5 million over less than two years, the city switched from purchasing treated Lake Huron water from Detroit, as it had done for 50 years, to treating water from the Flint River

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flint_water_crisis


Or the more widespread practise of arresting a disproportionate (very high number) of Blacks for made-up crimes  in order to gain revenue and keep  local taxes low.

https://www.rt.com/usa/236689-ferguson-police-traffic-stops/

And the way Private Firms  take over collection and  levy very high fines on the very poor and rig the rules so they  never have any chance of paying all their fines.

http://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2015/02/locked-up-for-being-poor/386069/

Welcome to the brave new world where the rich pay no tax and the poor can go feck themselves.

[steveL]

https://youtu.be/VYH89BB-G_Q

[steveL]

Back-tracking 2

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36629300

[steveL]

[akarjl]

You're full of great ideas. Do you think London should stop subsidising the North East as well?

So how exactly would the remain gang have fixed our situation if the majority of the electorate were prepared to trust them?

Oh wait I forgot they got us into the situation in the first place.

I am beginning to think the best approach would be a dictatorship...scrap democracy. Mmmm maybe we Should have stayed in the EU.

[mk1]

Mmmm maybe we Should have stayed in the EU.

We are. The  evasive way the Brexit Tories have been answering straight questions shows that they are desperately back-peddling in order to 'stay in'. The face-saving solution seems to be the Norway model where we accept all EU rules and regulations, contribute money but have no say at all in any decision making.
Boris was devastated when the EU leaders came out for a quick divorce because he really believed they would cave and give in to his demands. Merkel has the measure of him and she  has decided to ditch the UK and push for the  union of France and Germany to become the dominant power in Europe. I know history is a struggle for kippers but  Google 'balance of power' and see how for centuries Britain has striven to make sure no one  bloc becomes more powerful than her. By this decision that policy has been ditched and we will become very much the No 2 in Europe.

[mk1]

What did Farage say a few days ago?

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/nigel-farage-wants-second-referendum-7985017



25 JUN 2016
The Ukip leader speaks to the Mirror's Associate Editor Kevin Maguire and warns that a '52-48 result would be unfinished business'
Nigel Farage warns today he would fight for a second referendum on Britain in Europe if the remain campaign won by a narrow margin next month.

The Ukip leader said a small defeat for his leave camp would be "unfinished business" and predicted pressure would grow for a re-run of the 23 June ballot.

Farage told the Mirror: "In a 52-48 referendum this would be unfinished business by a long way. If the remain campaign win two-thirds to one-third that ends it."



I expect he  wishes he had not said that.......................