Tories on another planet.

[mk1]

Actually we're all social workers paid by the Institute of Applied Containment to keep you occupied on here and the general public safe.

You sound like  Malcolm Crowe. He got the dynamics of his relationship with Cole Sear ar*se-first as well!.

[mk1]

The Times: 

Hartlepool is on a knife-edge
It would mark only the third time a governing party had won a by-election from the opposition in nearly 40 years; the Conservatives don't yet have a candidate; and most bookies will tell you that Labour is the favourite.

Yet the first poll of the campaign suggests Sir Keir Starmer is in real danger of losing Hartlepool. It is the first poll to project the result of a contest that will — rightly or wrongly — be viewed by many as the definitive judgment on the first year of his leadership.

An MRP poll of the Teesside battleground by Focaldata - published exclusively by Red Box - reveals that Labour's lead over the Tories is down to only three percentage points, down from the 11 point lead that separated outgoing MP Mike Hill from the Tories in 2019.

What was a volatile, three-cornered fight between Labour, the Conservatives and Brexit Party at the last general election is now a straight fight between government and opposition: rebadged as Reform UK, the Brexit Party is projected to muster only 9 per cent this time.

Despite holding their 2019 vote with a projected share of 39 per cent, Labour is under attack from both sides of its fragile electoral coalition. At 36 per cent, the Tory vote is up seven points from the general election, fuelled by Brexit Party voters, and - ominously - Labour's lead is already within the margin of error.

Meanwhile the Greens, who did not stand in 2019, would keep their deposit comfortably with 7 per cent of the vote. The Lib Dems, who in 2004 not unreasonably fancied themselves as winners of the by-election held after Peter Mandelson quit the Commons, are nowhere on only 3 per cent.

Ominously for Starmer, the polling suggests that four in ten 2019 Brexit Party voters in Hartlepool are now going Tory, compared to only one in ten for Labour.

That, clearly, is a problem. Everything Starmer has said and done in his first year as Labour leader has been aimed squarely at Leave voters in seats such as Hartlepool, who he must convince to look at his party anew.

The challenge is particularly acute here. In only two seats did Farage do better in 2019 than Hartlepool, which amplifies any failure to cut through among former Brexit Party voters.

But across the north, the data tells a similar story. Focaldata's Hartlepool projection is taken from a poll of more than 5,000 voters across 83 northern constituencies: 47 held by Labour in 2017 and 2019, 21 held by the Tories in 2017 and 2019, and 15 won by the Tories from Labour in 2019.

Across these red wall seats - the defining battleground of the last election and next - Brexit Party support is overwhelmingly heading right. The Tories are winning 37 per cent of Farage's 2019 vote, compared with only 17 per cent for Labour.

Reform UK, meanwhile, are keeping hold of a respectable 23 per cent. Both parties will need to squeeze that number. But, as former Labour MP Caroline Flint warned on Times Radio this morning, Starmer may find his floor is lower in seats like Hartlepool than in 2019.


One of Jeremy Corbyn's successes — and there were a few — was that, for a period, he effectively put the Greens out of business as a meaningful electoral force. That, as has been clear from national polling for a while, is no longer the case.

You can debate the why of this dynamic all day long: Starmer's decision to tack to the centre and disavow Corbyn and Corbynism, increased salience for climate and environmental issues, Greta Thunberg. But the "what" is clear regardless.

Across all of the 83 constituencies polled by Focaldata, the Green vote is ticking up significantly. In many seats, like Hartlepool, they now outpoll the Lib Dems comfortably.

Labour voters are largely behind these increases: five per cent of 2019 Corbyn voters are now going Green. In most seats Starmer is defending in 2024, that won't really matter - for the Greens to win 7 per cent in, say, the leader's own seat of Holborn and Saint Pancras is neither here nor there.

But in marginal battlegrounds like Hartlepool, these defections could make all the difference. Peter Mandelson is often quoted as saying that traditional Labour voters had "nowhere else to go". When it comes to the young and left-wing voters, however, the problem is that they do: the Greens.

There is a real risk that a pitch to the red wall that repels voters on the liberal left could hurt Labour most in precisely the seats it is chasing.


It isn't all bad news for Labour. Of the 83 northern seats polled, they would take 62 if a general election were held tomorrow. A red wall rebuild is, to a certain extent, under way.

Of those gains, 12 are seats lost by Corbyn in 2019: Barrow and Furness, Blackpool South, Blyth Valley, Bolton North East, Colne Valley, Dewsbury, Heywood and Middleton, Redcar, Stockton South, Wakefield and Warrington South.

Only three are entirely new gains — that is to say seats Labour didn't win in 2017 or 2019. The brightest spot in an otherwise bleak vista for Labour is that Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Committee, would lose his seat in Altrincham and Sale West.

Morecambe and Lunesdale would also fall, as would Pudsey in West Yorkshire.

Starmer is undoubtedly making inroads into the territory Labour lost in 2019. But it is tough going. And beyond it, his progress is limited. These are numbers that suggest Labour is on the road to recovery, but not on the path to power.

[akarjl2]

Or in summary:

Ominously for Starmer, the polling suggests that four in ten 2019 Brexit Party voters in Hartlepool are now going Tory, compared to only one in ten for Labour.

We all know how accurate polls are- has anyone on here been approached for an opinion?

I hope the polls are right. We need labour out.

[Inspector Knacker]

Actually we're all social workers paid by the Institute of Applied Containment to keep you occupied on here and the general public safe.

You sound like  Malcolm Crowe. He got the dynamics of his relationship with Cole Sear ar*se-first as well!.

You sound like the circus clown who rolls up the carpet after the star acrobats performance and claims the applause for himself. Dream on.

[Inspector Knacker]

Or in summary:

Ominously for Starmer, the polling suggests that four in ten 2019 Brexit Party voters in Hartlepool are now going Tory, compared to only one in ten for Labour.

We all know how accurate polls are- has anyone on here been approached for an opinion?

I hope the polls are right. We need labour out.

There was hope till the Tories shot themselves in the foot and everywhere else with an howitzer and I can only assume they asked the local Labour Party to pick their candidate on their behalf.
The intervention of various third party candidates is to me a distraction. I await the intervention of the ....Make Hartlepool GREAT Again Party......Open up our Hospital Party.....Votes for Goats.....Independence for British West Hartlepool Party....The Labour Party.....Lib Dumbs.....Thr Radiator Party and other assorted cranks.

[mk1]

There was hope till the Tories shot themselves in the foot and everywhere else with an howitzer and I can only assume they asked the local Labour Party to pick their candidate on their behalf.
The intervention of various third party candidates is to me a distraction

You are not alone.  A lot of people are getting very agitated  because the think  the prize is  slipping away from them. A belief that  those who stand in the way of the Conservative candidate have ulterior motives is  leading to some very intemperate discourse on local social meeja:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/273708489455822/permalink/1919822871511034/?comment_id=1923605734466081

I say a pox on all  mithering political obsessives.  Someone  please save us from those convinced only they (or people who share their politics) can save us.

[akarjl2]

For gods sake some muppet on there is asking if candidates have got involved in food banks ......another reason I don't bother with farce book.

We need someone who can stand up in parliament and coherently represent the town not someone who idea of contributing to the town is bagging up tins of food ( even though they are to be commended).

Lets get serious about this and get someone who can actually string a sentence together, is not being investigated for something or is buying million pound properties on an MPs salary.

These daft wannabes who have no chance are just handing yet another potential victory te ye olde lads Labour Party.....lets stay in the 19th century and babble on about ship yards closing.....

[akarjl2]

don't forget MK0 party...

[mk1]

  Claim:

.  A lot of people are getting very agitated  because the think  the prize is  slipping away from them. A belief that  those who stand in the way of the Conservative candidate have ulterior motives...............

Immediate validation:

These daft wannabes who have no chance are just handing yet another potential victory te ye olde lads Labour Party....

.
What I want to know is how many Hartlepool  Council meetings did the Conservative Candidate attend? It seems to be an important qualification  to some. I guess that means we can assume  she is only in it for the money....................

[akarjl2]

how many Hartlepool  Council meetings did the Conservative Candidate attend? It seems to be an important qualification  to some.

Who cares? I wouldn't trust the average Hartlepool clownciller to speak about anything nationally. So the fact this woman has not been spouting off in the clowncil chamber is a huge plus point for me.

[Inspector Knacker]

don't forget MK0 party...

You mean the Labour Party ?

[Inspector Knacker]

I say a pox on all  mithering political obsessives.  Someone  please save us from those convinced only they (or people who share their politics) can save us.

What? Every supporter of every Party will act like that and it's to be expected. It's NOT the action any one party obviously.

[mk1]

lots of chunter on local social meeja over the fact the Labour candidate had stood for election elsewhere and is being described as a 'reject'.

Well it that is the case isn't the Conservative candidate Jill Mortimer also a reject?

[akarjl2]

mmm and your point is?

Chatter on Twatter /. Fartbook is worth exactly zero.

Bit like your latest ramblings.....off you go and read the times from 50 years ago.

Meanwhile back in reality land, nobody with half a brain cares- time for a change -fingers crossed Labour gets slaughtered in aaaartlepool.

[mk1]

s.....off you go and read the times from 50 years ago................

Funny you should say that, guess what I am looking at right now?

Clue: