Local Elections

[Hubris]

The May elections will come very quickly. 3 Short months and we'll be there. It's a chance for the town to have an important and direct say in its future.
There's 11 Wards up for grabs.
The elections are a chance to shake-off the mantle of incompetency and self-interest that pervades our council chambers and sees the town taking even bigger backwards steps.
The seats on the roster are:-

   WARD                  INCUMBENT        PARTY   
Burn Valley           Johnathon Brash     Ind
De Bruce                   Sheila Griffin      Lab
Fens/Rossmere        Steve Gibbon      PHF
Foggy Furze           C. A. Belcher      Lab
Hart                      Jean Robinson      Lab
Headland/Harbour        Jim Ainslie              Lab
Jesmond                   Mary Fleet              Lab
Manor House           S. A. Belcher      Lab
Rural West           R. M. Wells             Con
Seaton              Kelly Atkinson      PHF
Victoria              Chris Simmons      Lab

As the Post these days seems to be the town's only effective forum for opposition, what do you fellow Posters suggest should be the strategy for real change.
All of us are professionals when it comes to the easy stuff :-  at criticising the current Mob, at sniping, poking, ridiculing, so let's use our brains and creativity to be equally strong in our determination to play a central role in getting rid of the numpties and dead-wood that are in power right now. They are spending our money, affecting our futures, steering the town into ever deeper backwaters of progress and civilisation. A big shake-up would have the effect of returning local politics back to the land of common sense and decision making that had the best interests of the town as its central aim.
If the 7 Labour councillors were dumped, the whole dynamics of the council would change.

So what's the best strategy for change Posters?
- Which wards should the efforts and energy be put into?
- Which are the most vulnerable incumbents that could lose their seats if enough collective effort was put in?
- Which wards are a waste of time because the incumbent's position is too solid?
- Who are the prospective new candidates that should get the HP's support?
- How can the voters be given an even clearer picture of the current pathetic state of the town's politics?
- What are the top 5 examples of just how badly the town is being served and should be broadcast in detail to the voters -  eg Missing £6m, MRA scandal, disgraced mayor, planning corruption, pie-in-the-sky-visions, lying about council-tax, CICs and Jobs-for-the-boys, rampant nepotism, etc etc
- Should any prospective candidate that is independent minded be encouraged to align themselves with an existing party (eg PHF) and take advantage of having an existing election support machine in-place without having to toe any particular party line?
- Should a strategy to change be based on targeted character 'assassination' (ie telling the truth about certain people) and exposing to the voters just what:- An incompetent/self-serving/grubby/corrupt/past their sell-by date/"been there 4 yrs and done nothing"...their current councillor is?
- How many volunteers are out there to help with canvassing? With delivering leaflets? With creating hard-hitting and honest pamphlets? To knock on doors and help get the message across? 
- How can all the huge amount of energy and passion that's out there to completely change the status quo be harnessed and focused in the most effective way?

I had a dream the other night. It was May 7th. Election results were in. The SCABs were just a sordid foot-note of history. An Independent was council leader. Big Kev and 'never had a real job' Carl were marginalised. The Conservatives had started to vote and act as they should. Devlin at last had found his copy of the 7 Nolan principles. The Mail eschewed 'cut-and-paste' journalism.
Unfortunately, when I woke up I realised dreams don't happen just because it would be nice. And without .....- hard work - effort - imagination - creativity - determination -from those who are desperate for things to change, it won't happen!!   

     

[DRiddle]

Don't get me wrong, I'd LOVE it if we saw some serious change in HBC after May. I also totally agree there are a lot of people connected with this site and across the town who have been working hard to try to bring some issues to people's attention.

However...

WARD                  INCUMBENT        PARTY   
Burn Valley           Johnathon Brash     Ind
De Bruce                   Sheila Griffin      Lab
Fens/Rossmere        Steve Gibbon      PHF
Foggy Furze           C. A. Belcher      Lab
Hart                      Jean Robinson      Lab
Headland/Harbour        Jim Ainslie              Lab
Jesmond                   Mary Fleet              Lab
Manor House           S. A. Belcher      Lab
Rural West           R. M. Wells             Con
Seaton              Kelly Atkinson      PHF
Victoria              Chris Simmons      Lab

I think we have to be prepared for the possibility that Labour could win 9 of those wards AND Wells could strengthen his grip of Rural West in the coming months. Meaning Labour will have 10 of these 11 essentially. Only Seaton is a proven, historic record of being a non-labour ward, keeping in mind Labour have taken 2 of the 3 Fens/Rossmere seats back recently.

Granted last May saw the general election have a massive impact and saved the seats of at least 2 Labour councillors in my opinion. Without that this year, the turn out will be about 40-50% lower in most wards, meaning victories over Labour are possible.

But the key factor in all of this is knowledge. The vast majority of people voting in Manor House won't have a clue about SAB lying to his employers, being sacked for lying, pretending to go to funerals, his board membership of Manor residents Association, accusing NCC of failing to protect vulnerable adults etc.... there's a real possibility he'll be returned with in an increased majority.

Likewise with his partner, you could make a list as long as your arm of the things people on this forum talk about, but a sizeable proportion of people will simply go "Ah an election, i'll vote Labour", without even looking at his name next to the rose.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to be laughing on election night if he got turned over, but if he's going to be, there 's a hell of a lot of work to be done to make it happen.

Social media can be deceptive in it's reach.

The reality is, this site, this forum and the mail's comments board represents a small number of dancing flames trying really hard to light up a very dark room.

Don't interpret this message as me giving up. We just need those small number of dancing flames to cause a large fire.

[steveL]

The elephant in the room is the date of the EU Referendum. All the signs are that, although it's been accepted that it shouldn't take place on the same day as the Locals, people are pushing for it to be held in June. If this happens, then much of the TV coverage come May will be all about the referendum.

It sounds absurd but the 'carry-over' vote is a phenomenon that has to be acknowledged. Last year, I think Labour's butt was saved by having the General Election on the same day. The year before, the European elections were held on the same day. In both cases, the importance of local council elections was drowned out by national and European issues and if you were in the unfortunate position of having an utterly dysfunctional council like ours, controlled as it is by a bunch of charlatans and carpet baggers, little could be done to get people to focus on who would be their local councillor.

If the referendum is held in June, the effect will be much the same.

[Land Phil]

In terms of getting a leaflet together to discredit the mob, the difficulty would be not ending up with something as big as the Encyclopaedia Britannica.
It would be quite a challenge to get the message through as I can see Labour on a national level appealing to many Hartlepudlians.

As a Seatonian, I am worried about Kelly as she doesn't have a big image.
(Not knocking her as an individual.)

[Tee_Ess_25er]

But the key factor in all of this is knowledge. The vast majority of people voting in Manor House won't have a clue about SAB lying to his employers, being sacked for lying, pretending to go to funerals

I unfortunately have to agree 100% with this.  On the day SAB made the front page of The Fail with his story on being sacked, I was in the queue of a local shop and overheard 2 older gentlemen talking about it.  Their conversation went something along the lines of 'I didn't know he had been sacked as Mayor' to which I informed them of the goings on at his job in Newcastle.  They replied saying that they didn't really know much about anything like that and didn't even really seem that interested.

[Hubris]

Can't really see how an EU referendum in June will have too much of an impact on councillor elections in May. We all know just how generally apathetic the town can be when it comes to politics, and by the time June comes Cameron will have performed his smoke and mirrors, fudged all the concession issues and built a case based on fear of change and the unknown so the referendum will turn out to be a big non-event. Particularly so here where the impact and spectre of unrestrained immigration doesn't register too highly. I can see that there may be some minor benefit to UKIP candidates, but the councillor elections will be more shaped by DRiddle's truism of 'Ah, an election. I'll vote Labour!'
That, plus SteveL's point 'little could be done to get people to focus on who would be their local councillor' are the 2 key themes that need to be overturned.
Which gets me back to the point in a previous post - what can WE do about it?
Who will step-up and take a lead? Who can outline and share a strategy for change? What are the practical ideas for getting the messages out into every home? There has to be a united and coordinated effort.

[testing times]

Many people will happily tell you that they are not interested in politics although the same people will have an opinion on most things. Locally, if you ask them about the hospital, joining up with the rest of Teesside, councillor allowances, the state of the shopping centre etc then they will almost certainly have an opinion on all of it and on what 'they' should be doing about it.

You have to wonder who they think 'they' are - but then, as they told you earlier, they're not interested in politics.

Hartlepool people - they'e a breed apart.

[steveL]

If the referendum is in June then UKIP will do well in the locals for the simple reason that their profile will be raised in the run-up.

Also, don't rely on the fact that the number of immigrants in Hartlepool is so low; facts have never been a barrier to bigotry and even if we are drowned by economic arguments in the run up to the referendum, don't kid yourself that the economic arguments have much to do with how many people vote. There are a lot of people in this town who are totally convinced that there is an immigrant hiding in every red Post Box.

If you want proof of this then just look at the two UKIP Councillors that we have. Both were elected on a national ticket yet as local councillors they have contributed nothing when it comes to battling against the wrongdoing going on in the council - they have been content to leave that to others to do all the work.

[DRiddle]

Hubris, there are a few key factors which are virtually impossible to over come if what I hear locally is correct.

Firstly, the pretend conservatives will put paper candidates up in all the wards. They're only really interested in holding rural west but the other 10 candidates will be largely relatives of Ray Wells and are people basically being used to dilute the anti-labour vote.

Secondly, I expect UKIP to also contest all eleven wards.

There's also the high likelihood of the local Green Party, 'assisted and encouraged' by that mad cyclist fella contest several wards, potentially ALL 11.

People are saying 'just get together and agree to only put one candidate up against Labour' . . . The reality is, it's not that easy. Before you even throw Putting Hartlepool First into the equation, (plus any independents) it's already likely there will be 4 national parties contesting each ward.

That's often enough for labour to win. Take Hart as an example, last May I think 3 times as many people voted for someone OTHER than Paul Beck. But the 75% or so non labour voters spread across 3 parties.

It's a bizarre statistically anomaly that even in Manor House, 9 our of 10 people who COULD vote Labour DON'T vote labour.

In Hartlepool Labour have basically made a 'career' out of beating the electorate into a state of total apathetic submission.

Even people who say "well target the people who don't vote" don't fully realise (in my opinion) how hard that is to do.

And don't even get me started on the care homes and over 65s residential care situation.

[mk1]

.

Secondly, I expect UKIP to also contest all eleven wards.

UKIP have shot their bolt nationally. They are deluded if they think they will get enough votes to  replace Labour. Putting up 11 candidates would be a national party decision and I suspect what they are after is gaining brand recognition and care not a jot if that means they gift Labour the council.

[The Great Dictator]

The tories will probably place candidates in labour seats to split the vote to ensure a safe labour return.

[fred c]

And don't even get me started on the care homes and over 65s residential care situation.

I have always had serious concerns about the postal vote.... it is so easy to manipulate, it may be useful to ask the monitoring office to make it crystal clear to all candidates exactly what constitutes a "Postal Vote"

I don't think someone collecting a bundle from the residents of a care home or someone knocking on elderly neighbours doors can be regarded as Postal Voting........There are too many possibilities for it to be abused.

[steveL]

What's known as 'harvesting' of postal votes is strictly against the rules (and the law, actually) but Labour have been doing it for years. In fact, it was openly acknowledged by a former Leader of the Labour Group, who's no longer with us, years ago; he even had a good laugh about it. There a various forms, the knock on the door offering help to fill the form in, or to take it to the Post Box etc. Then there's the sheltered housing blocks which Labour are given access to canvass but opposition candidates are not - Belcher's mother did everything she could to keep anyone but Labour getting into her own little empire in Throston.

Then there's the count itself. The bags are meant to be sealed in black bags but everyone remembers the clear, unsealed bags that were carried into the Town Hall 4 years ago.

We are not dealing with normal councillors here; we are not even dealing with a 'normal' Labour Group.

[DRiddle]

Hart will be a good benchmark of whether the last 2 or 3 years tomfoolery by the Labour group have made any imprint in the minds of the electorate.

3 out of 4 active voters up there typically don't vote Labour.

If Jean Robinson stands again (and I believe she will) and wins.... then the thousand's of people across Hart will have re-elected a councillor who even members of her own party fully accept does basically nothing for her allowance.

It'll be a classic case of voting for the party rather than the person. In fact, as SteveL alluded to, it's not even a case of voting for the party really. Labour in Hartlepool couldn't be further away from Kier Hardy and more recently Jeremy Corbyn.

On that note, It makes me laugh when I see tweets from the Akers-Belchers cosying up to Corbyn.

Jeremy Corbyn is a man who's entire parliamentary expenses one year totalled £8.70 for an ink cartridge. Yet the Akers-Belchers are men who voted to channel upwards of a million quid to a company started by Kevin Cranney and Angie Wilcox.

Chalk and cheese.

Anyway, back to Jean in Hart. If she wins I honestly won't know what to make of the situation.

Hart and Seaton will be where it's close this year. Hart is likely to feature ex-tory Shane Moore for UKIP, the young Tory boy Isaac for the Conservatives, presumably Jean Robinson... plus a few surprises.

Seaton also will be a hard fought contest.

[not4me]

On that -point, can I just remind people who has the security contract for the Civic Centre and to then follow the dots between relatives and business associates till you eventually you get to Niramax.

Still happy about how secure those postal votes are as they lie stored in the Civic before the election date?