UKIP's Chances

Ryehill · October 17, 2014, 06: PM

DRiddle the U.K.I.P. triumph in the Hartlepool Constituency was the worst defeat the local Labour Party had suffered in a national election since 1935. There is no way can you take the shine off that. Between now and May U.K.I.P. will take every opportunity to remind the electorate and the Labour Party of that result.
As One Direction has pointed out P.H.F. have publicly stated that they do not intend to field a candidate in the G.E. They may of course support an Independent candidate but that would, undoubtedly,hand Iain Wright victory .Is that what you want?

seaton · October 17, 2014, 06: PM

Quote from: one direction on October 17, 2014, 05: PM
Quote from: DRiddle on October 17, 2014, 04: PMHowever, if PHF were to put up a candidate it could certainly help us win some seats along the way at local level.

Clear change of direction from PHF, they previously were very clear that PHF were NOT going to stand a candidate in the general election but now it's IF. How long before it's WHEN? Can I get a bet on now that Cllr Riddle has his eye on the seat (and has done since day 1 of his membership of PHF )

I have always said that Riddle has political ambitions, for me he could not stand under PHF in a general election again that would split the vote between UKIK and PHF probably allowing labour to retain the seat.

steveL · October 17, 2014, 06: PM

I think that you're getting a bit carried away there R. Check the turnout figures and then take a big gulp of reality. Over optimism has lost many a battle.

DRiddle · October 17, 2014, 06: PM

Again, I personally have no desire to be an MP. Nor do I have what I would even remotely call 'political ambition'.

mk1 · October 17, 2014, 07: PM

Quote from: one direction on October 17, 2014, 06: PM
Once again mk1 you are just too deep and devious for me?

Your faux naivity doesn't fool me.

and the above is not a question.............

mk1 · October 17, 2014, 07: PM

Quote from: Ryehill on October 17, 2014, 06: PM
DRiddle the U.K.I.P. triumph in the Hartlepool Constituency was the worst defeat the local Labour Party had suffered in a national election since 1935.

You did not defeat Labour. The beat you. There are no prizes for coming second and losing by 3 votes is just the same as losing by 3000. It is this feeling that you have it in the bag that will be your undoing. A lot of the people crowing about how they are going to force the Lab-Cons to do your bidding are in for a shock come polling day.

Quote from: Ryehill on October 17, 2014, 06: PMThey may of course support an Independent candidate but that would, undoubtedly,hand Iain Wright victory .Is that what you want?

There is no way your core vote is going to get you victory. Not enough people are that far right to get you into office. You have to broaden your base and attract middle of the ground voters and given the sometimes bizzare views of the bulk of your candidates this means your officials have to pretend they are shocked at the latest outrage and sacrifice the idiot who ignored the party orders to lie about what the party really believes.
You have to win over people like me. I find the majority of your manifesto deeply distasteful and you are just another party led by a public school city trader (who was caught trying to shift his money into his brothers name to avoid tax)with no experience of what real life is like for the majority of the population. Any leader who has to go everywhere surrounded by shaven-headed thugs knows he is unpopular. Check the background next time Nigel goes on one of his walkabouts or better still try and heckle him and see what happens to you.
Nigel was on Panorama the other night and he was asked why he would not grant them an interview. On camera he came across as a reasonable man who said he would do the interview. Out of the camer he went back to his no-interview stance. It was shocking to see how a UKIP press conference descended into chaos when they tried to hand pick the journalists allowed in. Only those who are on message can question the dear leader.
So my advise to you is keep the nutters(i.e manistream party opinion) locked in the cellar and you will get my vote.. Not because I agree with the UKIP intention to strip away all workers rights in order to placate you millionare city backers but because it suits me to kick Labour up the ar*se. I am using you but there are limits to what I can stomach. Be warned.

Let me test you. Much has been made of Wright employing his wife. Several UKIP people have castigated him for it. What are your views on Nigel's cunning plan to avoid this pitfall-His wife now pretends to work for another UKIP MEP and so he still gets the money. I understand so far the Farages have sucked over a million quid in expenses. Nice work if you can get it.

Do you think Nigel and his wife are leeches on the public purse or does he get a pass?

pensionater · October 17, 2014, 08: PM

Well there's a first, i actually agree with MK1 on UKIP .Surprised nobody put the Panorama prog on here.Thought the best part was when it showed Farage sympathising with fishermen then cut to Euro parliament with foreign MEP asking why Farage hadn't attended to vote on any of the fisheries debates.Egomaniac.

Ryehill · October 17, 2014, 08: PM

SteveL I might be getting over excited but you must agree that the U.K.I.P.'s results in May were very good.In addition when you throw the Middleton and Heywood result into the mix it must make Iain Wright a very worried man.

one direction · October 17, 2014, 09: PM

Quote from: mk1 on October 17, 2014, 07: PM
Quote from: one direction on October 17, 2014, 06: PM
Once again mk1 you are just too deep and devious for me?

Your faux naivity doesn't fool me.

and the above is not a question.............

mk1, sorry but I am completely at a loss as to what you are trying to say. Have I swallowed something hook line and sinker? or am I throwing out a hook to try and catch someone else? I'm a simple person, I so cryptic or over clever statements go right over my head!

mk1 · October 17, 2014, 09: PM

Quote from: one direction on October 17, 2014, 09: PM
mk1, sorry but I am completely at a loss as to what you are trying to say

Your faux Naiviety will never fool me.

steveL · October 17, 2014, 10: PM

Quote from: Ryehill on October 17, 2014, 08: PM
SteveL I might be getting over excited but you must agree that the U.K.I.P.'s results in May were very good.In addition when you throw the Middleton and Heywood result into the mix it must make Iain Wright a very worried man.

The results in May were very good for UKIP but the turnout was poor and the people who voted were mainly people actually interested enough in either the European issue or in local politics to bother to vote. A General Election is a different animal altogether skewed by 4 weeks of intense TV coverage and which generates a much higher turnout.

Put it this way, if you managed to get all of the UKIP vote out last May then you will be well and truly screwed next May. Only if you are able to get the majority of people who couldn't be bothered to vote for UKIP (or anyone else) last time to vote UKIP next May will you be in with a chance.

Sorry mate but it's just mathematics which is why you can't get carried away with the triumphalism.

marky · October 17, 2014, 11: PM

You're right Steve. It's not the people, who voted last May, it's the people who didn't vote that will decide the election. They couldn't be ar** to vote UKIP then and in a general election people tend to revert to type anyway.

I still think UKIP are in with a chance in Hartlepool but their best chance is on the 'none of the above, anti-Wrighty' ticket'. If they start spouting off about their own policies or what they actually believe then they're f**c***.

fred c · October 18, 2014, 09: AM

UKIP need to focus on the flaccid "Members" appalling representation of the people of Hartlepool.... constant banging on the Hospital Closure drum is obviously the main point, but his lack of providing any meaningful employment opportunities when his party was in Government is also a powerful tool.

An awful lot of people i speak to have intimated they would vote for UKIP, if only to get shot of the "Member"

The top & bottom of it is, If & it is a Big If, UKIP throw a lot of cash at Hartlepool & PB performs reasonable well, it could be the end of the Memebers parliamentary career.

one direction · October 18, 2014, 10: AM

As someone who is probably going to "hold my nose and" vote UKIP I wil be doing so purely on an anti labour ticket since Tories in hartlepool are a busted flush and Lib-dems have blown their chances for a generation. Sadly however I stil think the labour mind set in hartlepool will prove too strong. The problem with voting of course is I want them all to lose! None of the above!

Lord Elpus · October 18, 2014, 11: AM

In the past the herd instinct was always 'vote Labour'. However, the damage done by the current Labour group leadership is significant. Like others I to will probably 'hold my nose' and vote UKIP, just to shift Shighty.

If Shighty was a proper MP and fought for this town I'd also 'hold my nose' and vote Labour, but after 10 years he has failed this town at every turn when it really mattered.

Add to that the Miliband factor and I think Shighty is well and truely screwed.